ETC technical paper 2024/03: Drivers and sector disaggregation of projections and trajectories

29 Apr 2024

Juan L. Martín Ortega (GAUSS), Sander Akkermans (GAUSS), Pepa Lopez (GAUSS), Javier Chornet (GAUSS), Annabel Vella (VITO), Tom Dauwe (VITO), Yannis Robles Petrides (GAUSS), Babak Ebrahimi (NILU), Evert Bouman (NILU), Daniel Dean Moran (NILU)

EEA project manager: Javier Esparrago, Farley Rimon 

Abstract:

Member States are required to report on the country’s greenhouse gas emission projections and national integrated climate and energy policies and measures under the Governance Regulation of the Energy Union and Climate Action (EU) 2018/1999 every two years. This data is quality-checked by the ETC CM and subsequently used in several analysis and reports. GHG projections are an important information source to assess if countries are on track to achieve their mitigation targets. In this study, we delve deeper into the reporting to identify the primary drivers of GHG emissions at the most detailed disaggregation level possible. We aim to assess their impact on projections and evaluate the consistency between policies and projections, with the ultimate objective of improving the quality control activities of the ETC CM.